The Curious Case of 2024/25 Chennaiyin FC | Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin FC ISL 24-25 Match Preview
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| Modified Image originally belonging to ISL Media |
Win Loss Draw, Win Draw Loss, Win Draw Loss. 3-3-3. Chennaiyin FC are probably the most unpredictable team this ISL season. From winning as the underdog to losing as the odds-on favourite, the sheer inconsistency of this team makes them such a tricky opponent.
They began their season with a nail biting 2-3 win away to Odisha, immediately followed by a 0-1 loss at home to newcomers Mohammedan SC. That was followed by a goalless away draw against an anaemic Hyderabad.
It seemed like Chennaiyin again were falling back to the old habits of recent years, but that’s when they sparked a bit of hope by sensationally winning over NorthEast United FC at Guwahati. That was followed up by a commendable 2-2 holding of the Gaurs at the Marina Arena.
The game against Punjab looked all set when they were leading at half time, but mental lapses early into the second half eventually led to a 3-2 loss at Delhi. Then came their best performance of the season against Jamshedpur, a 5-1 humbling of Jamil and Co.
Chennaiyin welcomed Mumbai in the halloween afternoon fixture and boldly held them 1-1, and then proceeded to get thrashed 3-0 by Kerala Blasters at the Kaloor.
The Many Statistical Paradoxes of Chennaiyin FC
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| Courtesy: @statpeekers via isl-analysis-dashboard.streamlit.app |
Many of Chennaiyin’s woes can be explained by a few simple statistics. This would not have been possible without the work of a well respected member of the Indian Football Analysis Community Mr. Sushant Rao, from whose ISL Dashboard App the following charts have been extracted to analyse the curious case of Chennaiyin FC.
So the story starts from the attack. Chennaiyin take the most shots per match, and also the most shots in box per match among all ISL teams. And these are not your random Luis Enrique at PSG ball “inshallah” shots! Chennaiyin top the Goal Threat per 90 stat.
They also have the second highest Expected Goals (a computer analysis model which predicts how many goals a team should have scored based on various attacking parameters) behind NorthEast, they have the third highest shots on target per match behind MB and FCG and also the second highest touches in the opposition box behind KBFC (data courtesy for this paragraph: Fotmob)!
So what’s going wrong? Number of Chances and Finishing the chances. This is how their shot map looks (above pic). 15 goals scored from and Expected Goals of 19. The red spots are the shots which didn’t end up in a goal, and the larger a red spot is, it was more expected of that shot to have been a goal, but it didn’t. Moreover, they are 10th when it comes to big chances created, which is 12, while Odisha tops in that front with 21.
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| Courtesy: @statpeekers via isl-analysis-dashboard.streamlit.app |
The associated radar chart shows that Chennaiyin have a measly shot accuracy of 27.8%, 4th worst in the league, above Mohammedan, Hyderabad, Kerala Blasters and East Bengal, and the best in the league on that front being Mohun Bagan. Moreover Chennaiyin have a below average conversion rate of 9.6%.
Beyond the numbers, a casual recapitulation of their match highlights reveals the inconsistencies between how they converted unlikely goals and how they missed plain sitters, the latter being slightly more common.
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Now, more of Chennaiyin can be understood by looking at the ways they are creating their chances and their interesting midfield setup. They don’t pass much, but they are surely very particular about them. Third least in number of passes, but the highest number of key passes per match is surely worth noting.
Moreover, they have a high field tilt (which is the ratio between their passes in their attacking third (the 1/3rd area of the pitch from the goalline where they are supposed to be scoring goals) to the total number of passes of both teams in their respective attacking third) which basically shows they are present more in the part of the pitch where they have a better chance at scoring a goal.
Thus following two graphs paint a good light on how the passing stats of Chennaiyin described earlier is panning out when it comes to creating goalscoring chances. They are effective in their attacking moves, but they should be attacking more, and be more clinical with the chances they are getting.
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| Courtesy: @statpeekers via isl-analysis-dashboard.streamlit.app |
Now, to the unsung backbone, the defense. That has been mostly good enough. Chennaiyin are very difficult to beat if you are trying to play a slow buildup pass possession heavy styled football from the so called ‘modern’ school of the game. Chennaiyin are a lot more vulnerable when they face teams which thrive on quick launches, transitions, high pressing and unpredictability.
The best contrast can be observed to the naked eye when comparing their games against Mumbai City FC and Kerala Blasters. A look at social media during those matches will tell you a story of how ‘boring’, ‘dull’ and stalled the game against Mumbai was, while how fast paced, ‘exciting’ and ‘entertaining’ the Kerala encounter transpired.
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This boils down to the way Chennaiyin approached these two different kinds of teams and how those teams approached Chennaiyin. Mumbai are the slow guy, taking their time, the midfielders distributing, forward dropping for a touch or two, the attacking mid making a few fashionable moves and then a horizontal pass, a lob to the winger, and the winger feigning for a few seconds in front of the well covering full back and then passing back in defeat, and the ball going round and round and round. That game was eerily similar to when a team like Manchester City plays against, say, Everton.
Chennaiyin Head Coach Owen Coyle has mastered this approach being tried to be implemented in the Indian footballing circuit, with Mumbai generating a measly 0.9 xG with 77% possession being a vivid proof for that (data courtesy: @totalf0otball via X). The defensive line is well positioned, the wingers drop down, the midfielders put a lot of pressure and they are not shy to use their physique.
Now when they face the fast paced on the counter transition reliant teams like Kerala with their tricksters like Noah and Luna, that is where Chennaiyin players’ individual errors get exposed heavily. Defenders are slow, they get muscled out, dribbled past, and if there’s not enough protection, they get exposed pretty easily. A look at the way they conceded against Kerala, Punjab and NorthEast explains that without much debate.
Whom to Look Out For and How to Tackle Chennaiyin
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| Chennaiyin FC's Average Formation and Player Pass Relationship against Jamshedpur FC (left) and Mumbai City FC (right) (Courtesy: @totalf0otball via X) |
Let’s first start examining who has been playing how and then try to understand Coyle’s psyche behind his variations. It is obvious Owen hasn’t found his winning formula yet, and thinking there is one such formula is a flawed.
It all boils down to the individual prowess of Chennaiyin. A core issue lies in their defenders getting played past quite easily one on one. To solve that, Owen brought Elsinho to Defensive Mid, but Elsinho is quite rigid and has a poor passing range. He previously had Hnamte getting good minutes there but not anymore after he too was getting outmuscled, or maybe the creative advantage he brought didn’t justify the lack of physical play.
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| Courtesy: @statpeekers via isl-analysis-dashboard.streamlit.app |
Elsinho is a defensive monster, he blocks shots, drives away creators from central zones, pushes, pulls and isn’t ashamed to do the dirty work. So to compensate for his lack of creativity come Connor Shields and Lukas Brambilla.
Connor Shields has managed to produce the highest number of Expected Assists, Chances created and Successful crosses (with an accuracy of 45.5%) per 90 among all other players in his position this ISL season. He is leading the assists chart with 4 to his name along with Hugo Boumous, Greg Stewar0, Alaeddine Ajaraie and Jithin MS.
On top of that, he wins 0.91 tackles and 4.02 duels and wins 0.65 possessions in final third per 90. He dribbles surprisingly well for his physique, with 1.43 successful dribbles per 90 (a success rate of 61.1%) which is better than 87% of players in his position.
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Lukas Brambilla players lesser but is no less than him. 1.99 successful dribbles per 90 with a success rate of 55%, 4.16 touches in opposition box per 90 (84th percentile for position), 5.96 duels won per 90, a tackle win percentage of 70% (1.27 tackles won per 90) makes Chennaiyin’s midfield rather able (stats for the last three paragraphs sourced from Fotmob).
However, Chennaiyin do not have a Greg Stewart or a Hugo Boumous, i.e. an exceptional flair. But with the way Chennaiyin plays, a Shields or a Brambilla fits the equation much better, given their better defensive records.
An interesting player in Chennaiyin’s defense this season has been Farukh Chaudhury and it is understandable why Owen is trying him out there. He has the stamina, the aggression, the hunger to get the ball and start a quick counter with his pace, but his cluelessness as a passer, the quality of his passes, ball control and aimless long shot attempts really hasn’t brought much in his favour till now.
Matter of fact, when Kiyan Nassiri started against Jamshedpur in a similar space, his linkup intelligence did help the team a lot, although Jamshedpur are markedly different from a Mumbai or a Kerala hence it would be unjust to both Farukh and Owen’s psyche to compare like this, but definitely it is not a trashable opinion if one says Kiyan and Jiteshwor Singh should have a louder say when it comes to gametime.
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| Courtesy: @statpeekers via isl-analysis-dashboard.streamlit.app |
Ryan Edwards is Chennaiyin’s most important player in my personal opinion. He is everywhere, in the right spots at the right times. Interceptions, blocks, winning headers, scoring headers; he has bailed out and compensated for the embarrassing errors of his defensive counterparts uncountable times. Chennaiyin are guaranteed to lose games heavily if this guy is unavailable due to any reason.
Dinpuia doesn’t have the abilities of the traditional fullback, hence Owen has keep him a bit withdrawn, and instead put Irfan Yadwad at a left mid to left wing role, where he has instructions to drop down but also has the freedom to make accelerations forwards in counters which has helped the team on multiple occasions. They also do have an experienced Mandar Rao Desai when at times Yadwad needs to be strictly attacking, but again Desai does get run over due to his age.
A more traditional relation can be seen on the right flank, where Renthlei at right back tries to find Vincy Barretto, who probably has the highest raw speed of any Indian football, albeit with not so good ball control and passing.
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| Chennaiyin FC off the ball structure (Courtesy: ISL on JioCinema) |
Off the ball, Chennaiyin press a lot. A LOT. Everyone works a lot, pushes, pulls, annoys; no breathing room. They have a one-on-one system in the midfield if there’s no numerical advantage, and if there is one, they try to block the central passes.
It looks like the back four are in their line, followed by Elsinho, then Yadwad, Connor, Farukh and Vincy in a line and then there’s forward Gil along up top. Edwards forms a decent partnership with Bikash Yumnam, the latter having his share of goods and bads, but there’s none in the squad who can do better than him there given the current injury situation.
Gil’s physicality helps a lot. He has surprisingly good ball control and dribbling ability for a man of his size, and he can push through defenders and win duels which is important for a side so heavily dependent on long balls and the highest number of crosses of any team.
He has 1.09 goals scored per 90 with an xG of 0.85 per 90 which puts him at the 89.3rd and 92.9th percentile among players in his position this ISL season. He has the highest Non-penalty xG of all players this season. He takes 4.37 shots (89.3rd percentile) per 90, 2.19 of which are on target (92.9th percentile).
He’s great at winning arial duels (best in his position with 4.92 per 90) and has a dribble success rate of 60%. That being said, he has missed some easy chances even after creating those from seemingly impossible situations, but that’s something probably forgivable at the ISL foreigner forward standard.
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How Can Mohun Bagan Ensure a Victory?
Bagan will have to play like Kerala and not Mumbai to cause trouble to Chennai, whose defensive structure is very well trained, and it would be fruitless to think they can be beaten with some beautiful all players touching the ball 27 pass tiki taka crescendo, but rather through long balls, fast progressive relation-istic play.
A type of attack which completely destroys Chennaiyin is the one Bagan have scored their latest goal from. A beautiful lobbed delivery to the wing from Deepak Tangri to Manvir Singh, who accelerates, chops and finds the perfect pass to set up Jamie Maclaren.
Chennaiyin will have a numerical disadvantage to us in midfield, and the creative prowess of Thapa and Apuia would be key in moving past their press and progress the ball onto Greg or Petratos who in turn can set up Liston, Manvir or Jamie.
Mohun Bagan have an elephant in the room to address though when it comes to the choice of forward. When will Cummings be starting? In games like these, I’d rather prefer Petratos’ long shot strength and Jamie’s height and crispier movements given Chennaiyin are going to setup a low block.
Irfan Yadwad and Vincy Barretto will cause huge troubles to Asish Rai and Subhasish Bose respectively and thus Aldred and Alberto will need to stay very alert to keep those tricksters in check and also Connor Shields arriving late to bang one in the bin. Former Chennaiyin player Deepak Tangri has improved lots. He is much more composed on the ball, his passes are faster and sharper, and he’s much more mature when it comes to defending.
Thus, given that our full backs will be beaten a lot, that would lead to many cut backs, hence it won’t be wrong to start him over Chennaiyin legend Thapa to keep Connor or Brambilla in check. With the way Bagan are performing, Tangri should start if Greg starts, and Thapa should start if Petratos starts. These pairs work well.
Bengaluru have won again as Mohammedan couldn’t hold their lead late game again, hence it is critical for Bagan to be not dropping points at home, because it is definitely a winnable match for them given Chennaiyin’s inconsistencies, but as discussed till now, it has led them to many teams taking them casually and led to Chennaiyin punishing them. Caution will be key.
Mohun Bagan: Kaith, Bose, Aldred, Alberto, Rai, Thapa, Apuia, Stewart, Colaco, M. Singh, Maclaren.
Members of the Indian Footballing community coming together to help a writer out to put out an information rich piece at such a short time period is indeed heartwarming, and I am sincerely thankful to all.
A type of attack which completely destroys Chennaiyin is the one Bagan have scored their latest goal from. A beautiful lobbed delivery to the wing from Deepak Tangri to Manvir Singh, who accelerates, chops and finds the perfect pass to set up Jamie Maclaren.
Chennaiyin will have a numerical disadvantage to us in midfield, and the creative prowess of Thapa and Apuia would be key in moving past their press and progress the ball onto Greg or Petratos who in turn can set up Liston, Manvir or Jamie.
Mohun Bagan have an elephant in the room to address though when it comes to the choice of forward. When will Cummings be starting? In games like these, I’d rather prefer Petratos’ long shot strength and Jamie’s height and crispier movements given Chennaiyin are going to setup a low block.
The stage is set, time to step on to that pitch to take on Chennaiyin FC! ⚡️🫡
— Mohun Bagan Super Giant (@mohunbagansg) November 30, 2024
Mariners, we will see you out there! 💚♥️#MBSG #JoyMohunBagan #আমরাসবুজমেরুন pic.twitter.com/knAs44OrXd
Irfan Yadwad and Vincy Barretto will cause huge troubles to Asish Rai and Subhasish Bose respectively and thus Aldred and Alberto will need to stay very alert to keep those tricksters in check and also Connor Shields arriving late to bang one in the bin. Former Chennaiyin player Deepak Tangri has improved lots. He is much more composed on the ball, his passes are faster and sharper, and he’s much more mature when it comes to defending.
Thus, given that our full backs will be beaten a lot, that would lead to many cut backs, hence it won’t be wrong to start him over Chennaiyin legend Thapa to keep Connor or Brambilla in check. With the way Bagan are performing, Tangri should start if Greg starts, and Thapa should start if Petratos starts. These pairs work well.
Bengaluru have won again as Mohammedan couldn’t hold their lead late game again, hence it is critical for Bagan to be not dropping points at home, because it is definitely a winnable match for them given Chennaiyin’s inconsistencies, but as discussed till now, it has led them to many teams taking them casually and led to Chennaiyin punishing them. Caution will be key.
Probable Match Lineups
Chennaiyin: Nawaz, Renthlei, Yumnam, Edwards, Desai, Elsinho, Barretto, Nassiri, Brambilla, Yadwad, Gil.
Mohun Bagan: Kaith, Bose, Aldred, Alberto, Rai, Thapa, Apuia, Stewart, Colaco, M. Singh, Maclaren.
Credits and Regards
This article would not have been possible without the various inputs of my social media friends @Hussainov1ch, @cfc_superman, @mitsuki_x_10, @HULK_CTID, @why_so_valuable, @za_best_pepzi and @Rohit_Speaking. There points guided me to go in depth into Chennaiyin FC this season.
Hey Chennaiyin mutuals I need to write a preview for tomorrow's match but haven't been following all matches due to personal reasons, so if any of you can just tell how's your team playing, good, bad, whom to look out for it would be very helpful. Would give credit ofc. 🙏❤️
— Avik Chatterjee (@just_avik) November 29, 2024
Members of the Indian Footballing community coming together to help a writer out to put out an information rich piece at such a short time period is indeed heartwarming, and I am sincerely thankful to all.
If there is any inadvertent incorrect information or completely wrong analysis provided in the article, I would be more than happy if the reader can point that out by tagging or messaging me on X.
